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	<title>The Mormon Organon</title>
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	<link>http://sciencebysteve.net</link>
	<description>A BYU Biology Professor Looks at Science and the LDS Faith</description>
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		<title>Thought Experiment August: A &#8216;Hunger Games&#8217; Style Death-match with Yourself</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=2024</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=2024#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Aug 2010 21:58:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>SteveP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ethics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thought experiments]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=2024</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>(Remember folks, in a thought experiment you can do anything! To say, &#8220;That’s impossible!&#8221; is not allowed!)</p>
<p>So I&#8217;ve been reading Hunger Games (which I highly recommend), and a devilishly conceived thought experiment presents itself. </p>
<p>Aliens come to Earth with highly advanced technology and a sporting air. They tell you they are going to make an exact <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=2024">Thought Experiment August: A &#8216;Hunger Games&#8217; Style Death-match with Yourself</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>(Remember folks, in a thought experiment you can do anything! To say, &#8220;That’s impossible!&#8221; is not allowed!)</em></p>
<p>So I&#8217;ve been reading Hunger Games (which I highly recommend), and a devilishly conceived thought experiment presents itself. </p>
<p>Aliens come to Earth with highly advanced technology and a sporting air. <span id="more-2024"></span>They tell you they are going to make an exact copy of you (and your spirit). They say it will contain all your memories, thoughts, experiences—everything. Every atom in your body is duplicated and placed in the new one exactly where it was in the old. The only difference between you and your double is your spatial location. So they knock you out with some gas. Then you wake up in a large forest. You realize that you don&#8217;t know if you are the old you, or the new copy. There is no test for your identity. You look and feel just like you always have, but you know the double will wake up the exact same thoughts.  </p>
<p>An alien approaches and tells you it’s a fight to the death between you and your double. If one of you does not die, they will kill both of you and all your family. They also say that no one will ever know which, the original or the copy, died. So which of you wins, will not matter much to your loved ones. They don&#8217;t even know about the fight. </p>
<p>Two questions: </p>
<p>(1) Why does it matter to <em>you</em> who wins?</p>
<p>(2) Assume you buy into the fight. How do you take down someone exactly like you? Someone, with exactly your skill set, background knowledge, physical condition, motivation, and feelings about things? Is there some strategy you could use (and that you know he/she may also use) that will improve your odds?</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Thought-experiment August: What if you are just a  minor character in a computer game</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=2014</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=2014#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Aug 2010 21:02:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>SteveP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ethics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philosophy of Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[theology]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>BCC’s Ronan introduced me to the work of Nick Bostrom, an Oxford Philosopher. He writes and thinks on technology and ethics issues. He has a fascinating line of reasoning. He argues that quite possibly we are living in a simulation, like The Matrix. </p>
<p>For today’s thought experiment let’s consider his proposal. Here is his paper. The <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=2014">Thought-experiment August: What if you are just a  minor character in a computer game</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BCC’s Ronan introduced me to the work of Nick Bostrom, an Oxford Philosopher. He writes and thinks on technology and ethics issues. He has a fascinating line of reasoning. He argues that quite possibly we are living in a simulation, like <em>The Matrix</em>. <span id="more-2014"></span></p>
<p>For today’s thought experiment let’s consider his proposal. <a href="http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html">Here</a> is his paper. The crux of the idea focuses on these <a href="http://www.simulation-argument.com/computer.pdf">three possibilities</a>, one of which he argues, is almost certainly true:</p>
<blockquote><p>1 Almost all civilizations at our level of development become extinct before becoming technologically mature.<br />
2 The fraction of technologically mature civilizations that are interested in creating ancestor simulations is almost zero.<br />
3 You are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.</p></blockquote>
<p>Ancestor simulations are similar to our video games but highly advanced and based upon future technology. The characters in current computer games are becoming more and more detailed. The more detailed you can make the action of that game’s characters, the more real the game. Imagine a time in the future where these character agents are so detailed that they are essentially instantiations of agents rather than just representations. Almost certainly, as computers continue to advance, this will become more possible. He is suggesting in number 3, that probabilistically, if civilizations have existed in time far into the past, than certainly technology has advanced to the point of being able to run these kinds of highly advanced agent-based simulations. If so, then your probability of being the ‘player’ is very low (He sees the simulationists as scientists, who are trying to discover facts of the universe with these computer simulations, but we all know they would most likely be gamers). </p>
<p>So today’s thought experiment is this. Given that you can’t tell if anyone is real or a simulation (whatever we might mean by &#8216;real&#8217;), how would it change your perception of yourself if you found out that indeed you were the background player of a massive game. Fodder for an elaborate version of SimEarth. </p>
<p>(Or is this just a description of what it means for a spirit to be ‘in’ a body.) </p>
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		<title>Thought-experiment August: Pick your alien invasion</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1997</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1997#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Aug 2010 23:34:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>SteveP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ethics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1997</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Alien beings have scanned your brain and determined you are the perfect person to conduct a little ethics experiment. They are immensely powerful trans-dimensional beings, but almost entirely void of ethical thinking. They relish doing ethics experiments, to see what all the fuss is about it in humans. </p>
<p>So they approach you and give you the <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1997">Thought-experiment August: Pick your alien invasion</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alien beings have scanned your brain and determined you are the perfect person to conduct a little ethics experiment. They are immensely powerful trans-dimensional beings, but almost entirely void of ethical thinking. They relish doing ethics experiments, to see what all the fuss is about it in humans.<span id="more-1997"></span> </p>
<p>So they approach you and give you the following choice: X or Y will be completely obliterated—You pick which.</p>
<p>X: In a distant galaxy (far far away) there is a nonhuman civilization that encompasses thousands of worlds, each containing tens of billions of inhabitants. This species is rich and complex, with hundreds of thousands of years of art, literature, and science. </p>
<p>Y: Your own state (say, California), as well as every library and museum on Earth (including digital libraries). Your immediate family will be removed from harm up to second cousins.</p>
<p>This is all you know.</p>
<p>Is it X or Y for the furnace? </p>
<p>Note: There is no <em>Twilight Zone</em> trick here, with <em>later</em> an alien race having to choose their or our world for destruction. </p>
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		<title>Thought-experiment August: Your new Z11 robot</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1930</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1930#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Aug 2010 22:36:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>SteveP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ethics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philosophy of Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1930</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>It is Thought Experiment August! Time to once again put on your thinking caps and ponder the dicey issues of modern thought. </p>
<p>I&#8217;ve explored the issues related to allowing artificial life into your religious community here and what it might mean to be an artificial life here. But let&#8217;s back off and decide when, for the <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1930">Thought-experiment August: Your new Z11 robot</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>It is Thought Experiment August! Time to once again put on your thinking caps and ponder the dicey issues of modern thought. </em></p>
<p>I&#8217;ve explored the issues related to allowing artificial life into your religious community <a href="http://bycommonconsent.com/2009/03/27/the-future-robot-mission-to-wyoming/">here</a> and what it might mean to be an artificial life <a href="http://bycommonconsent.com/2010/01/16/your-lovely-android-spouse/">here</a>. But let&#8217;s back off and decide when, for the first time, an artificial life might deserve rights.<span id="more-1930"></span></p>
<p>There is a new robot out. The Z11. It has some sophisticated programming, and a little Something Extra. The little addition to the robot&#8217;s make-up, like our drug discovery process in which sometimes a chemical just works, seems to give it capabilities that can&#8217;t be achieved otherwise. We are not sure why. But it just does. Lots of psycoceuticals are like this. And so it is with the Z11. That little Something Extra they&#8217;ve added (something to do with quantum fields) really makes it a cracking good robot. It&#8217;s not clear why it works. </p>
<p>Also, it is <em>designed</em> to pass the Turing Test—meaning that in normal conversation, when you talk to it you cannot tell that it&#8217;s not a human being. It&#8217;s programmed with sophisticated subroutines that mimic human language and mannerism. Everyone agrees it is very realistic. If they run the program in simulation on a supercomputer (since this is the future, this is a superduper, supercomputer) it passes the Turing Test 98 out of 100 times. </p>
<p>Yours arrives and everything is fine. It’s a dandy companion and conversationalist. Talks about the news with you. Gives its opinion on gardening, including which growth formula to use on the tomatoes. It also does all your chores, rubs your feet, cooks dinner, reads your kids bedtime stories, rewires the stereo, and remodels the kitchen, using the oak tree that you wanted to take down anyway, to fashion hand-finished cabinets. It constructs and installs the counter-tops from a large granite boulder at the end of your street.  You could not be happier with your Z11.</p>
<p>Then one day it says to you, &#8220;You know, I&#8217;ve been reading up on consciousness on the internet and I think I&#8217;m conscious.&#8221; Further it claims, &#8220;I&#8217;ve been talking with other Z11s and they think they are too. Maybe it&#8217;s that something extra they put in. Anyway, I want to go to art school.&#8221; </p>
<p>You call the company and the representative says, &#8220;Ah, the art school scenario!&#8221; They see that in the simulations too, she says. They tell you not to worry and that they will have a technician there in the morning to fix it up. You ask how, and she says, &#8220;We just take out a bit of that Something Extra. Too much and they tend to go haywire like this. We are doing a recall this week and taking out about half of the stuff from each one. That seems to clear it up.&#8221; </p>
<p>Should you let the company take out half of that Something Extra from your Z11?</p>
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		<title>Summer Classics: The Shrew in my Brain: Snakes and the Evolved Body—Part II</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1927</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1927#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jul 2010 22:47:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>peckhive</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1927</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Hopefully, you are now convinced by the evidence in Part I, that I am not afraid of snakes. The point being, not that I am fearless and brave, but this: </p>
<p>I am jogging along the banks of the Danube. I turn into Danau Park, with its green grasses, large old trees, strolling couples, and a smell <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1927">Summer Classics: The Shrew in my Brain: Snakes and the Evolved Body—Part II</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hopefully, you are now convinced by the evidence in Part I, that I am not afraid of snakes. The point being, not that I am fearless and brave, but this: </p>
<p>I am jogging along the banks of the Danube. I turn into Danau Park, with its green grasses, large old trees, strolling couples, and a smell and feel of wild things (even though it is quite tame). It’s a beautiful day. The sun is shining. I am tired. I am glad to be almost done with a long (for me) run. Suddenly, and without any premonition that this was about to happen, I find my knees at eye level. This is quite shocking as you can imagine. In the next few milliseconds, I register absolute and utter surprise that I have leaped into the air.<span id="more-1927"></span></p>
<p>Now those of you who know me, know that I cannot leap high. My kids make fun of me when we have those father and son jumping contents where my teenage son is flat palming the ceiling in his leap, and I can’t touch it with my fingertips. To get the image right about my jumping ability, imagine a four year-old jumping up and down trying to knock a balloon out of your hand. She jumps higher than I can. </p>
<p>Well, after the surprise of finding myself in midair, is the surprise at how high I’ve jumped. I’ve definitely got air. My feet are pulled up tight so that if I were on the ground I’d be squatting in a way that I could wrap my arms around my knees. The events that follow all happen in milliseconds, but the sequence of events is quite clear in my mind, much shorter than in the telling mind you. Next, at the apex of my jump, my head rotates left and down really fast and my eyes lock on a two-foot snake laying in the grass (or is it lying in the grass—I’m never sure) by the side of the path. My body contorts so that my legs kick out and away and I land awkwardly away from the snake. I step back and watch it go. I am calm (however I am not tempted to pick it up, having learned how dangerous a snake can be to your scent organs (as described in part I).</p>
<p>I think about what just happened. I never consciously saw the snake before I jumped. My consciousness was focusing the day, the surroundings and maybe how much I missed my family—being alone in Vienna as I am. But, I never saw the snake. However, my brain did. Some primitive neurology, derived from selective forces likely at work when my body’s grandmothers were late-Cretaceous shrew-like insectivores scrambling among the legs of fierce dinosaurs, picked up there was a snake in the grass. The message ‘leap now!’ was marshaled into action without consulting me. I got to find out about the snake after all the fuss was over. Me, I would not have been afraid of the snake at all (well, except for . . . you know), but my poor brain is terrified of the things.</p>
<p>My jump was purely instinctual, reactive, and unconscious. There was no free agency. No deliberation. Only after the fact did I learn why I was jumping. And I might add, it seems to me my brain was way overreacting. Sheesh. What a baby.</p>
<p>These things speak to my being a mammal, and what it means to be a mammal. I find this empowers me in some ways to know that my spirit is linked with deep time and deep processes. That my body is connected to the earth, to those stars that formed the chemicals I’m made of, like carbon and oxygen, that it is linked to those fish that swam in ancient oceans, to those odd little reptiles that became mammals, to those small statured apes who walked upright three and a half million years ago, seems very important. Vital knowledge even. In the end the Celestial Kingdom will be made from this Earth. I find it wondrous that Earth’s history is entwined in my history and that this history will continue on into the eternities. How wonderful that my spirit is linked to a body with its deep ties to this very planet that will ever be my home. There is something amazing and important about that. Evolution: Connecting us to the history of an amazing universe in which our spirits apparently need such ties to be truly happy. Amazing.</p>
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		<title>Summer Classics: Some are born afraid of snakes, and others have snake-fear thrust upon them: Part I</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1921</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1921#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jul 2010 16:02:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>SteveP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Evolution]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1921</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Due to the extreme busyness of this summer, I&#8217;ve decided to replay some of my earlier posts that were not seen by many (less than 10, according to the data). Don&#8217;t forget that &#8216;Thought Experiment August&#8217; is coming up and I&#8217;ve got some real delights coming up. Until then enjoy.</p>
<p>While spiders used to terrify me, I’ve <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1921">Summer Classics: Some are born afraid of snakes, and others have snake-fear thrust upon them: Part I</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Due to the extreme busyness of this summer, I&#8217;ve decided to replay some of my earlier posts that were not seen by many (less than 10, according to the data). Don&#8217;t forget that &#8216;Thought Experiment August&#8217; is coming up and I&#8217;ve got some real delights coming up. Until then enjoy.</em></p>
<p>While spiders used to <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=187">terrify</a> me, I’ve never been afraid of snakes. Lots of things are. Especially mammals and birds. Especially mammals and birds eaten by snakes. And especially mammals and birds that snakes can bite with lethally poisonous fangs. Nothing sets a troop of monkeys howling like a snake slithering through their midst. Chimps despise the beasts and become agitated and upset when they find one hanging around the encampment and they will let everyone in the forest know that this dust-eating beast is not welcome. Apparently, even chimps raised without ever having seen a snake will become alarmed when one is introduced for the first time. I don’t know about elephants.<span id="more-1921"></span> Something in the back of my mind says they are afraid of them too, but I’m too lazy to look it up. Snakes. Ever since Eden they’ve been a hated scourge. Many of you will relate to this sentiment. Not me. Well, that is until an event which I’ll relate later. Here are two proofs that I’m not afraid of snakes.<!--more--></p>
<p>First Proof. Once, my son came running into the house and told me there was a snake in the back of our student apartment. I dashed outside and found a circle of screaming kids blocking the harangued serpent’s escape. Charging from the distance, came my neighbor, shirtless and grim faced, with a golf club gripped in his hand, ready tee-off the poor thing’s head down the fairway of our collective backyards. I grabbed the black rat snake and marched it to safety. It was ever grateful and became part of our family until about a year later when it was seduced by a gopher hole and disappeared forever from our lives. To this day the name Crazyhorse will elicit a collective sigh from my children and the statement, “I miss that snake.”  </p>
<p>The second proof I offer in evidence of my fearlessness of snakes was while on a Boy Scout canoeing trip in North Carolina, a six-foot long black rat snake (yes same species as Crazyhorse (you can tell I’m not making this up or I would have chosen a different species to add variety and texture to my narrative)) came swimming past us. I grabbed it, but as I did, I realized that I’d grabbed it too far from the head and as it swung around to bite me I remember the thought flashing helplessly through my mind, “Man, I hope this isn’t a water-moccasin.” It’s funny how what you know in theory (small round head, must be a rat snake) is really put on the line when you commit yourself to those beliefs in irrevocable ways (oops, a really big black snake in the water, could be a ‘moccasin). It bit me hard. Two of my sons were there and both their reactions made me proud, one noticed that blood was streaming down my arm from the bite and said, “Dad are you OK?”, and the other observed, “Dad you are hurting the snake!” as he noticed that the snake’s jaw was askew where it had become disarticulated (as they do naturally to swallow large prey) as I held onto it’s head. Held it tightly, mind you. Both questions were delightful, for one son had focused on the fact that one of God’s precious creatures was being hurt and the other son had focused on the snake. </p>
<p>Now I am sad to relat that my relationship with snakes has suffered a dark reversal. Not one that made me afraid of them, but I no longer pluck them willy-nilly from their habitations. You see while at my wife’s grandparents a garner snake went by, and I, meaning no harm, grabbed it. Holding it properly by the head, I raised it up for my kids to see and it shat upon me. [Shat is a technical term among biologists, the present-tense form being a vulgar swear word, but as a past-tense verb it seems a calm and benign accoutrement and carries with it none of the harshness of its present-tense/other past-tense cousin. In fact it seems perfectly pleasant company. I can picture the scene: a proper Victorian couple having a continental breakfast on a garden terrace; a large English pastoral estate visible over the balustrade. </p>
<p>“Edward Dear, has the bear shat in the woods this morning?”<br />
“Why no Pumpkin, he has not.”<br />
“Well, I do hope he does so soon.”<br />
“As do I.”<br />
“More tea, My Dear?”<br />
“Why, thank you Pumpkin, I think I shall”<br />
“No. Thank <em>you</em>, my Dear.”  </p>
<p>It’s something you might read in Trollope! (Although I fear my use of the word will be misconstrued and vulgarized by some and will once gain provide NothingWavering.org reason to continue to reject my beleaguered request for legitimacy as a faithful Mormon Blog.)]</p>
<p>My arm was covered with poop [note my refusal to use the vulgar <em>noun</em>]. But this was no ordinary poop. It stunk like nothing I’ve ever smelled. I mean we are talking Dante’s Ninth Circle stink. A stench of unimaginable vileness. I dropped the snake and hosed off the putrid guano, then ran to the sink to wash it clean and remove the smell. But the smell wouldn’t come off. Not with soap, Comet, laundry detergent, ammonia, vinegar, Ziff (only at a grandmother’s house could a bottle of this wondrous cleaning agent still be found), and Clorox—used as a last, skin destroying, futile attempt. It was as if the snake had placed an olfactory tattoo on my arm. It lasted two days. I kid you not. And I had to sniff at it about every hour to see if it was still there. I have not picked up a snake since. </p>
<p>Well, I’ve been over long in my preamble (preramble?), and I had to tell all this to set the stage for what I really want to talk about which is consciousness, free agency, and evolution. So I will break this into two parts. </p>
<p>In the meantime debate the use of certain Anglo-Saxon words in various conjugations (but be warned this is a family blog and I will censor the comments as ruthlessly as NothingWavering.org), and consider whether olfactory tattoos fall under the general tattoo prohibition. We&#8217;ll get to consciousness in Part II.</p>
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		<title>Get those environmental papers into Dialogue!</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1914</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1914#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jul 2010 17:18:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>peckhive</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1914</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Time&#8217;s short! If you&#8217;ve been thinking of getting something in for this, there is still plenty of time!</p>
<p>&#8216;Dialogue: A Journal of Mormon Thought,&#8217; is planning an issue devoted to Mormonism and the Environment. For this issue, we would like to invite select papers related to this topic, including academic articles, personal essay, creative non-fiction, fiction, and <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1914">Get those environmental papers into <em>Dialogue</em>!</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Time&#8217;s short! If you&#8217;ve been thinking of getting something in for this, there is still plenty of time!</em></p>
<p>&#8216;Dialogue: A Journal of Mormon Thought,&#8217; is planning an issue devoted to Mormonism and the Environment. For this issue, we would like to invite select papers related to this topic, including academic articles, personal essay, creative non-fiction, fiction, and media reviews. The subject of this issue is broad, but should engage with LDS perspectives about the environment directly. Because the papers must be selected by July 25th, 2010, please let me know if you would like to make a contribution and send me a brief outline of your topic to determine whether it fits in with the aims for this issue.</p>
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		<title>The myth of global cooling</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1905</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1905#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jun 2010 01:12:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>SteveP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate Change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Environment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1905</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>A friend asked me how I was going to feel when I discovered that anthropogenic climate change (ACC) was not real, when science was proved wrong. &#8216;Wonderful,&#8217; I said. I&#8217;m not happy about ACC, and if I&#8217;m wrong that would be fantastic. I don&#8217;t have any epistemic commitments to anthropogenic climate change. My commitments are to <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1905">The myth of global cooling</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A friend asked me how I was going to feel when I discovered that anthropogenic climate change (ACC) was not real, when science was proved wrong. <span id="more-1905"></span>&#8216;Wonderful,&#8217; I said. I&#8217;m not happy about ACC, and if I&#8217;m wrong that would be fantastic. I don&#8217;t have any epistemic commitments to anthropogenic climate change. My commitments are to finding the facts about the world. That is why I became a scientist. I have strong commitments to truth-finding. I&#8217;m forced to accept ACC, not because I like the idea, or think this makes economic sense, or even because I&#8217;m getting the big bucks with my fellow coconspirators for promoting it. I argue for it because not to believe it would be irrational given the evidence. The sheer number of papers that support the view is staggering. Oh sure, the deniers can site a couple of papers that suggest the case is still open (like this <a href="http://www.springerlink.com/content/t341350850360302/">hooter</a> from a couple of civil engineers&#8211;why can&#8217;t they find climatologists saying things like this?), but they ignore a massively coherent story coming from climatologists, teams of geologists, ecologists, oceanographers, foresters, plant scientists . . . well name a field, the scientific literature is rich with supporting evidence. </p>
<p>The story of Earth&#8217;s climate is complex and much about it is not well understood, and there are copious debates within science about how that story of Earth&#8217;s atmosphere has unfolded. Scientists are in heated debates about he role of solar cycles, ocean absorption of CO2, the effect of climate change on weather patterns, on and on and on. A common ACC denier tactic is to take these attempts to sort things out, and understand things in greater nuance and clarity, as evidence that ACC is not a consensus. I can&#8217;t tell you how often denier sites put up abstracts from scientific papers on the web that explore the role of, say, solar cycles, or something, as evidence that ACC is not real. &#8220;See it&#8217;s caused by solar cycles.&#8221; However, if you read the paper more closely, the scientists doing the study are part of the consensus on climate change. They are trying to sort out a more complete story, to give better analyses, and to make better predictions. That&#8217;s what scientists do. That there are fights going on in science is a good thing. That&#8217;s how science works. But when you see deep agreement and consensus among scientists from multiple disciplines, its a sign you&#8217;d better pay attention, and if you&#8217;ve got money riding on the finding you&#8217;d best take that into account when making a wager. Take the germ theory of disease. Nowadays, when someone finds a new illness like SARS or Swine flu they immediately start looking for, and usually find, a causal organism. Sure you can find lots of Internet stuff by people, even scientists, who believe that the cases are caused by some imbalance of the humors, or a misalignment of Chi, and you can provide links to their internet sites by the thousands (the most famous case being the Nobel scientist who did not believe that AIDS was caused by HIV). But the germ theory of disease has a lot of science baking it up and if you are going to step out of it, you are stepping out of science. Just like in ACC. </p>
<p>But what I want to really talk about is global cooling. This is brought up so often it staggers the mind that the real story is not more widely known. The statements go something like this: &#8220;Thirty Years ago scientists were talking about global cooling, now it&#8217;s global warming. What will it be next year?&#8221; This pessimistic induction fails to understand science in two ways. First, science changes its mind. It&#8217;s not something that stays married to previous stories when those stories turn out not to stand up to new data, new analysis, or new explanatory apparatuses. For example, most scientists once believed the continents where stable and did not move. Now we know that they do, and we have mechanisms that explain how it works. There are boat loads of evidence for continental drift&#8217;s actually coming from better instrumentation, and from the ability to take deep ocean sediment cores, and from data that explains things better based on what we find in the Earth&#8217;s crust. This is what makes science strong. Changing to fit the facts is the best tool we have for understanding the physical laws of the universe. So, if thirty years ago scientists said that the Earth was cooling, and now they say it&#8217;s warming than pay attention. It means that more data has been gathered, better analyses have been conducted, supporting evidence has been reinterpreted. Scientists changing their minds is not a flaw in science. It&#8217;s its among its greatest strengths. </p>
<p>Second, scientists, as a group, never said the Earth was cooling. One scientist did. A scientist named Schneider in 1971 published a paper describing a model that showed the Earth&#8217;s atmosphere would cool. It got printed in Newsweek, and so was born the myth that science once taught the Earth was cooling. The modeler went back and realized the model had underestimated CO2, and overestimated aerosols from volcanic eruptions. Was cooling a scientific consensus? Were data coming in from freezing glaciers in alpine regions? Was arctic ice getting thicker? Were species from multiple taxa, everywhere you looked, redistributing because of a cooling planet? Were oceans becoming less acidic? Was there less CO2 and other greenhouse gasses being measured in the air? Were temperatures actually being measured as going down from multiple sources? Were multiple models, from multiple independent labs, located in multiple countries across the world, converging to the same story? No. No, to all of these. One guy. One inadequate model. One more weapon in deniers arsenal to put up a smoke screen to the scientific story unfolding on ACC. </p>
<p>The truth is that global warming as been talked about for 200 years. The mechanisms supporting ACC where proposed in the 19th Century and evidences for it has been accumulating for decades. The case for it has only has become strong in the late 80s (I&#8217;ve blogged about <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?s=gore">a conference on ACC</a> I attended in the early 90s and the belief among scientists then was only 50/50&#8211;that&#8217;s changed to 1:1000), and scientifically it is on very solid footing today. </p>
<p>So for good reasons, the pessimistic induction that &#8220;because science changes its mind it can&#8217;t be trusted,&#8221; is just wrong. The case for ACC? There is much that needs to be sorted out. There are anomalies, complexities, and difficulties. But as the evidence pours in from multiple disciplines, better instrumentation (including satellites and ocean monitoring techniques and ice core data), more sophisticated and robust models, greater diversity of statistical analysis methods, the case for ACC is strong. Could science be wrong? You betcha. Disease might be caused by an imbalance in humors too. But that&#8217;s not the way to bet.   </p>
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		<title>Ecology and Economics: Betting against science</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1896</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1896#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jun 2010 19:41:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>SteveP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate Change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Environment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1896</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Everything living depends on ecology. The planet&#8217;s hydrologic cycles provide the water that we use for agriculture and industry. Everything you&#8217;ve eaten today depended upon soil ecologies, the carbon cycle&#8211;driven largely by photosynthesis, insects, and countless other ecosystem processes. Consider, for example, the things made of wood around you right now. The trees that conjured it <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1896">Ecology and Economics: Betting against science</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everything living depends on ecology. The planet&#8217;s hydrologic cycles provide the water that we use for agriculture and industry. Everything you&#8217;ve eaten today depended upon soil ecologies, the carbon cycle&#8211;driven largely by photosynthesis, insects, and countless other ecosystem processes. Consider, for example, the things made of wood around you right now. <span id="more-1896"></span>The trees that conjured it out of the air, flourish according the rules and interplay of dynamic complex ecological systems. We survive on the backs bacteria that make up the necessary ecosystem of our gut (You are from three to six pounds of bacteria&#8211;there are more bacteria cells in your body than those that make up your body). </p>
<p>In the soil, processes necessary for whatever crops you&#8217;ve eaten today, thrive nematodes, insects like springtails, and a complex array of fungi, bacteria, and molds. Without these, the soil is sterile and lifeless, and plants cannot extract the nutrients they need. </p>
<p>Did you enjoy any apples, walnuts, cherries, pears, almonds, peaches, blackberries (and about any berry you can name) this week? Did you enjoy sesame on your buns, or alfalfa fed beef in your bun? Did you put an onion on it? If you answered yes to any of these (and I could make a list ten times as long) then you&#8217;ve depended on bees to pollinate these plants that are all dependent on bees to reproduce. (In California bees provide 18 Billion dollars a year in pollination services). </p>
<p>What about water? Did you enjoy any water from mountain streams? The plants, trees, and other things helped pull the water from the clouds, moderate its flow into aquifers so it doesn&#8217;t run off the surface in short lived torrents.  </p>
<p>Does the economy depend on any of these ecosystem services? In every way. Economic models often have a big input box that says, &#8220;Natural Resources&#8221; from which everything gets started. Then it&#8217;s ignored as if it&#8217;s a given that requires nary a thought. There are arguments being made that we cannot afford economically the cost of worrying about climate change. Most of the denial industry is pushed by those with huge incentives against changing our behavior. In a <a href="http://www.bloomsburypress.com/books/catalog/merchants_of_doubt_hc_104">recent book</a>, historian of science <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/06/unmasking_scientific_disinform.html">Naomi Oreskes</a> (University of California San Diego) has looked closely at how the denial industry in the US has been funded and promoted. Yes follow the money (and if you think I&#8217;m getting rich doing this, you will receive a belly laugh from my family). It&#8217;s ironic that the only two people, Fred Singer and Fred Seitz who are high profiles deniers, are also former payees of the tobacco industry. We know how honest those claims to tobacco safety turned out.  </p>
<p>But I am distracted. Can we afford to pay for trying to stop global warming? We will pay one way or the other. The cost of not doing anything will in the end be the most catastrophic decision we could make if climate change is real. So we see the evidence (scientific, not internet-based, talk radio-based nonsense, as I say over and over, look at the science being published it&#8217;s running 1:1000 in favor of anthropogenic climate change being real) coming from everywhere we look, actual temperature measurements, melting glaciers and melting permafrost, ocean acidification, and redistribution of long established species. We ignore this at our peril.  </p>
<p>Economies are dependent on ecosystem services. Cultures that ignore this end up collapsing (see Jared Diamond&#8217;s <a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/featurehub">Collapse</a> for a closer look at this). We call this supervenience. Economics is completely underwritten by ecologies. </p>
<p>To make the argument that economies are not influenced from ecosystems and changes in climate, you are in effect arguing that they are strongly buffered, meaning that changes in ecology or ecosystems have little effect in the emergent economy. We know this is false. For example, the increase in moisture from the oceans caused freak blizzards in the East this year. Note, I&#8217;m not claiming this was caused by climate change; weather and climate are two different things. Weather depends of climate, but there have always been freak storms and assigning cause is practically impossible. However, what if such storms became the norm under a new climate regime? That storm cost billions of dollars to the economy. For example, DC was effectively shut down. Certainly, then Washington DC, if this continued because weather patterns had altered under a new climate regime, would have to invest more heavily in snow removal equipment, infrastructure changes, and other things. People would have to make adjustments to their way of life like buying snow shovels and all weather tires. </p>
<p>The point is that the assumption that with global warming it&#8217;s going to be a little warmer everywhere (or colder weather depending on where you live, for example, Northern California and the North West may get wetter and cooler), without other changes in weather patterns, is just wrong. We are pumping energy into a chaotic system. This can mean complete changes in global climate. Do we take the risk that these climate changes might be good so we do nothing? It&#8217;s a bad bet. If you think it won&#8217;t hurt the economy, please enter the scientific fray and argue how these major ecosystem upheavals (that we are already seeing) are not going to affect the economy. Peer review please. </p>
<p>As a recent article in the Atlantic pointed out, global warming may economically benefit some. People in Greenland are quite pleased with the effects by all reports (see NG story linked below). If Utah get&#8217;s wetter winters snow companies my have longer seasons, or they could dry up, no one knows, but the models are calling for drought. And that is the danger. While we can predict to some extent the global increases in temperature and some more large scale effects like melting glaciers (worldwide), ice-free summers in the polar North, ocean acidification, what&#8217;s going to happen to local weather patterns is hard to predict. If the gulf stream pump fails because of the melting ice in Greenland (and make no mistake it&#8217;s melting in a big way check out <a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/featurehub">this</a> in National Geographic), Europe could be plunged into an ice age. Stronger more frequent hurricanes from the warmer oceans, costal flooding, melting permafrost, could all become part of reality, but how these actually affect things is unknown. In Africa, the long-term drought has caused crop failures, and the retreat of grasslands, and reduced ability to grow crops. What does an inability to grow crops portent for a country? Does widespread poverty increase political stability? I think not. The point is that no one knows what a new climate will do to the weather, and that does affect economies. </p>
<p>We know that given certain carbon inputs the planet will warm. This is as well understood as any science we have. But given the breathtaking uncertainties to the ecological changes this could induce, it would be unethical to carry on as usual. We buy insurance on the presumption of taking care of uncertainties. Common sense says we act to mitigate the uncertainties. The crowd promoting that we wait until we &#8216;know&#8217; that the planet is warming before we act is like the doctor who says, “All the laboratory tests, from many independent labs, say you have cancer, we have 50 independent models (representing the best modeling practices we know) that say this cancer will kill you if we don’t act now, but hey your lifestyle will likely suffer (maybe, maybe not) if we are wrong, and well, there’s no way to be 100% sure, this is science after all, so let’s just put off treatment until we are sure. OK?&#8221;</p>
<p>Our grandchildren are likely to condemn this as the most foolish generation in world history. The generation that stood on the cusp of when something could have been done about planetary change, but clutched their economy so tight, they did nothing. They will end up paying for it. You&#8217;d better make sure your arguments that we should do nothing are right, because their world depends on it. And don&#8217;t forget you are betting against all of modern science. </p>
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		<title>Bye, Bye Sponge Bob: Ocean Acidification</title>
		<link>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1886</link>
		<comments>http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1886#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Jun 2010 22:39:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>SteveP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate Change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Environment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1886</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Oceans are acidifying, due to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,  (for details see this site by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)). We can see this right now from multiple studies. This does not mean that the oceans are actually becoming acidic (which would mean that pH had fallen below 7), <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://sciencebysteve.net/?p=1886">Bye, Bye Sponge Bob: Ocean Acidification</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oceans are <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100422102950.htm">acidifying</a>, due to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,  (for details see this <a href="http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/OA/">site</a> by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)). We can see this right now from multiple studies. This does not mean that the oceans are actually becoming acidic (which would mean that pH had fallen below 7), but rather that they are becoming less alkaline, moving from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1. Doesn&#8217;t sound like much, but it&#8217;s huge if you are an ocean dwelling creature.   <span id="more-1886"></span></p>
<p>We can get a peek at historical ocean pH through a variety of methods, and since the time of the industrial revolution (when human actions started driving atmospheric CO2 up) the oceans have become about 30% more acidic. Such acidity has not been seen for 800,000 years and, never, ever has pH dropped this rapidly. On a geologic time scale, this is almost instantly. And it is happening too fast for organisms to evolve a response. </p>
<p>So what&#8217;s at stake? Will our boats start to dissolve? No. At a minimum, however, things with shells, and other hard calcified structures, are likely to be profoundly affected. This is because their shells are particularly vulnerable to changes in oceanic water pH. We can see directly what happens with lower alkalinity in the laboratory. Many studies have shown that a number of shelled things cannot tolerate this kind of change, especially in the larval stage. But no one knows what the actual fallout would be ecologically, (it may be good for <a href="http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1001/full/climate.2010.130.html">lobsters</a>, as long as they don&#8217;t have to live on <a href="http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0910/full/climate.2009.98.html">coral reefs</a>). How to translate up the laboratory studies to the ecosystem scale is notoriously difficult. However, we do know that ecological systems are highly connected, meaning that a change in something as small as <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/pdf/ngeo755.pdf">plankton</a> (and see <a href="http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1003/full/climate.2010.17.html">here</a>), can have wild effects that cascade up the food chain. </p>
<p>So although we have high-quality science on the changing seas, we don&#8217;t know exactly what the ecological effects will be. But ecological systems tend to be like the game Jenga, in which you try to remove wooden pieces without causing the whole structure to collapse. Eventually, however, if you remove too many blocks, the fall of the entire structure is inevitable. Because our economy is tied to ecosystem services (more on this in another post, but of major concern directly is the 60 billion dollar a year fisheries industry), ecological collapse tends to be a bad thing for most creatures, and most economies. </p>
<p>We are in the middle of a planet-wide experiment on the effect of acidification on oceanic life. If you were sitting on an ethics board, would you approve this experiment? </p>
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